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Sunday, January 02, 2005

Paging Netscape

Enough with the long posts. For now. I have it on good authority that no one reads them. (Though I have to say, at this point in my blogging career - a few days into it - there isn't anyone reading, anyway.)

Just some second thoughts on my last post: I can see how offering up a multitude of designs and colors in basic "consumer" phones makes sense for a company like Nokia. But in my view this is just treading water. It won't mean anything when the Microsoft cigarette boat comes roaring through. And come roaring it will.

Nokia is in the same boat - or, rather, the same water (I'm not sure they really have a boat) - as Google (and, to a lesser extent, Sony) vis a vis Microsoft: extremely vulnerable. Would you be surprized to find, in five or six years, that Nokia phones are running Windows for mobile? I wouldn't. Not because Microsoft makes a better product. Not even because Microsoft has the muscle to dominate with mediocre product. No, it'll be because competing with Microsoft requires extraordinary awareness, long term vision, and real daring. And I just don't see those qualities among any of its rivals (with the possible exception of Google - too soon to say; and Apple, maybe - too late, alas). Paging Netscape. Oops, not around anymore, are they?

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